According to the schedule for adjusting refined oil prices, at midnight today (March 23), the domestic retail price ceiling for refined oil will undergo another round of adjustments.

　　Many netizens have reported receiving text messages notifying them of an upcoming fuel price hike, with some noting that “the expected increase is likely to be significant”↓

According to the latest forecast data on international crude oil price movements tracked by industry institutions, the projected increase in retail price caps for refined oil products in this round far exceeds the 50 yuan/ton threshold required for an adjustment. It is highly likely that retail price caps will be raised this time. Based on calculations, the price of domestic 92-octane gasoline may fully enter the “9-yuan era.”

　　Retail Price Ceilings for Petroleum Products May See an Increase

Recently, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have persisted, and market concerns over reduced crude oil supply have continued to intensify, driving international crude oil prices to maintain a relatively strong upward trend within a high-range.

　　Professional monitoring models indicate that as of the market close on March 19—the ninth working day of the current domestic refined oil pricing cycle—the reference crude oil price change rate stood at 45.21%. Based on this figure, the corresponding increase in domestic refined oil retail prices would be approximately 2,000 yuan per ton.

　　Analysts indicate that the price adjustment window for this cycle is about to open, and the crude oil price change rate may continue to rise in the short term, with the final increase in domestic refined oil retail prices potentially reaching around 2,200 yuan per ton. Based on this calculation, converted to per-liter prices, 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and No. 0 diesel would each increase by 1.73 yuan, 1.83 yuan, and 1.87 yuan per liter, respectively. If the retail price ceiling for refined oil products is implemented at this level, the price of 92-octane gasoline in China will fully enter the “9-yuan era.” At that time, private car owners will need to spend an additional 86.5 yuan to fill a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline.

　　Since the beginning of 2026, domestic retail price caps for refined oil products have undergone five adjustment cycles, consisting of “four increases and one suspension.” Compared to the end of 2025, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have risen by 1,160 yuan and 1,120 yuan per ton, respectively.

Wholesale Prices for Gasoline and Diesel Have Risen Significantly

　　Since the start of the current pricing cycle for domestic refined oil products, wholesale market prices have surged substantially. According to professional monitoring data, as of March 19, the average domestic market price for 92-octane gasoline stood at 9,479 yuan per ton, up 14.8% from the previous pricing cycle; the average market price for diesel was 7,977 yuan per ton, up 15.9% from the previous pricing cycle.

　　Analysts noted that ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, creating a supply gap in the international crude oil market. As a result, international crude oil prices have continued to rise, with Brent crude futures breaking through the $100 per barrel mark. Additionally, domestic concerns over crude oil supply shortages persist, and ensuring domestic retail supply has become the primary focus for sales at large state-owned enterprises, leading to a significant upward trend in refined oil product wholesale prices.

　　Looking ahead, analysts predict that in the short term, international crude oil prices are likely to remain at elevated levels due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.